Carbon Farming Knowledge

Latest seasonal forecast from The Break

The climate situation is delicately poised.

Some evidence still exists for the hang over of last year’s quasi La Nina. Models feel an El Nino coming with gusto, the actual evidence for one in the central Pacific at the moment is scant. Plenty of random stuff has got to happen with winds and undersea temperatures to lock one in. Those events often happen during our Autumn. The Autumn period is notoriously poor for predictions because of this uncertain time.

It’s interesting to note that models have been giving us early signals for the last four years. In 2014 for an El Nino which didn’t quite happen, 2015 for an El Nino which did and 2016 for a La Nina which didn’t quite happen. In 2017 for an El Nino which may or may not fire. So no cause for alarm yet, but a bit of judicious thinking and scenario planning for a late break and or drier season wouldn’t go astray.

Models are split between drier and average rainfall for autumn but have a greater consensus for warmer conditions. If anything, predictions for Winter, (with really poor skill) are for drier and warmer to continue.

For further information subscribe to The Break at the.break@ecodev.vic.gov.au

Comment